The most startling aspect of the current primary campaign is the surge of Donald Trump, despite or perhaps because he breaks all the rules. He crudely insults women, proposes to seize the Middle Eastern oil fields and wants to build a vast wall with Mexico with the Mexicans are somehow to pay for. He is a notorious flip flopper with no clear beliefs, except in himself. And yet he is by far the front runner for the Republican nomination.
A radical new theory suggests that the Trump phenomenon may be an early sign of the end of American democracy. This theory is biohistory, which proposes that society reflects the prevailing temperament of the people. For example, when people are enterprising and creative and work hard for future benefit, the society tends to be wealthy. When they are focused more on an easy life and short-term benefits, wealth declines.
The same applies to politics. When people respect the constitution and rule of law, democracy flourishes. When they follow any demagogue who makes attractive promises, democracy decays. This process can be seen in the fall of the Roman Republic. By the first century B.C. the disciplined, patriotic Romans of early times had become a fickle mob ready to follow strongmen such as Julius Caesar who tore up the constitution but offered bread and circuses.
Biohistory proposes that the disciplined, hard-working temperament that makes a society great has its roots in childhood, in control and direction by disciplined parents. Backed by social and religious disciplines such as chastity, this early experience has ‘epigenetic’ effects. Epigenetics is the new science which shows how the environment can change the activity of certain genes, with dramatic and sometimes permanent effects on attitudes and behaviour.
Romans of earlier times were controlled in their personal behaviour and provided austere discipline to their children. By the late Republic growing wealth had made them more indulgent, both of themselves and of their children. They were also less interested in the hard work of being parents, which is why the birth-rate dropped.
The same pattern has been seen in the West in recent decades as a direct result of our own much greater affluence. The disciplines of religion have fallen away, as has the discipline of children. One result has been economic stagnation and a growing gap between rich and poor. Another has been cynicism about government, political deadlock that causes debt to spiral out of control, and the rise of mavericks whose sole appeal is that they are against ‘politics as usual’. Such anti-politicians are surging all over Europe, as Trump is in America.
In the end Trump will likely be pushed aside as the Republican majority unites behind a more mainstream candidate. But the Trump phenomenon is a frightening sign to what the future holds. In particular, biohistory predicts that the “anti-politician” will have increasingly greater appeal..
The only way to stop this happening would be a reversal of current trends, a return by the general population to the more disciplined temperament of the past. The revival of Christianity and Christian values is one possibility, but in practice could not of itself counter the corruption of wealth. This means that the only hope lies in science, to find a way of immunizing ourselves against the malign effects of too much wealth.
A multi-million dollar research program at a number of Australian universities has given new insights into how environment affects character. Hormonal and epigenetic effects have been identified, and there are promising clues on how this might be done. But far more research is needed if Donald Trump is not to signal the beginning of the end for American democracy.
Biohistory: Decline and Fall of the West, by Dr Jim Penman, was published in 2015 by Cambridge Scholars.
